NEWS

Bitcoin gold launched

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                                                                                   precious metals picture

Bitcoin gold launched following hard fork

A new cryptocurrency called bitcoin gold was launched on Tuesday as a hard fork was completed following block 491,407 on the bitcoin blockchain, creating a new one incompatible with the existing chain. All bitcoin owners will receive the new digital currency at a 1:1 ratio.

Bitcoin gold aims to change the mining algorithm by implementing the Equihash algorithm in an effort to bring back greater decentralization to the mining community. The project was proposed by Jack Liao, CEO of LightningASIC, a Hong-Kong-based company that produces cryptocurrency hardware.

The last hard fork occurred in August, when bitcoin cash was created, which resulted in bitcoin owners earning over 20% of the dollar value they had in bitcoin at the time. During the pre-launch, bitcoin gold was worth $397.22, while the trading volume in the past 24 hours was almost $9 million.

October 24th, 2017

From Teletrader News

Stocks Drop, Gold Leads Haven Rally on Korea Fears

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On August 7th on the Swiss ProfilInvest Web site, visitors could read the French article "Twilight over the markets": 

Today, August 29th, it seems that we have begun the consolidation :

 

Stocks slumped around the world and havens including gold jumped after North Korea fired a ballistic missile over Japan, rattling markets from New York to London to Sydney. Gasoline climbed as energy companies braced for another hit from Tropical Storm Harvey.

 

Residential property prices in Switzerland - 1st quarter 2017

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• The UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index remained in the risk zone at 1.39 points in the first quarter of 2017 following a moderate increase.

• The increase in home prices outpaced the increase in rents and income.

• Demand for buy-to-let investments also rose, in spite of heightened market risks.

The UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index remained in the risk zone in Q1_2017 at 1.39 index points. The index increased moderately over the slightly revised figure for the previous quarter. The rise was driven mainly by a slight acceleration in nominal price increases for owner-occupied homes amid stagnant rents and income. Demand for buy-to-let investments rose as well. Buy-rent ratio deteriorates further Stagnant rents caused the buy-rent ratio to deteriorate for the tenth time in a row in Q1 2017. At the same time, the percentage of loan applications received by UBS for properties not intended for personal use experienced another slight increase. This can be explained by the fact that buy-to-let investments can produce high returns on equity if they are highly leveraged. Given the continued large number of building permits, it seems likely that construction activity will remain (too) strong in this current year. We estimate that the construction of new apartments will exceed the additional demand for apartments by approximately five to ten thousand units this year. This should keep rents on a downward trajectory, particularly for new apartments. In other words, life is about to get even more difficult for landlords. Investor demand for owner-occupied homes is primarily attributable to the entrenched expectation that interest rates will remain low. However, a rate increase would most likely bring strong demand for buy-to-let investments to an abrupt halt.

Regional analysis The Geneva, Nyon and Morges regions are in a correction phase. Local owner-occupied housing markets have already cooled in these regions. In the past three years, price corrections in Valais, Bernese Oberland and parts of Grisons mean that there are no longer tourist regions on the risk map. The regional risk focus is gradually shifting from Lake Geneva to the regions of Zurich and Central Switzerland.

Methodology The regional risk map shows those regions posing the greatest macroeconomic risks in the event of a Swiss-wide correction. The analysis is based on the population size, the price level and the price behavior for owneroccupied homes.

Chief Investment Office WM | 5 May 2017 | Translation: Matthias Holzhey, economist, Claudio Saputelli, economist, Maciej Skoczek, CFA, economist, Source UBS.

Small is beautiful again

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blue flower

Small is beautiful again, why ?

Because in a world of social, cultural, and technological changing rules, 

small organisations have a tactical advantage of being :

  • dynamic
  • flexible
  • client oriented
  • cooperative
  • and open minded.

And Swiss ProfilInvest tends to offer these advantages to his clients through the leitmotiv "Donner un sens à la finance".

Visit our Web site www.swissprofilinvest.ch 

Entête lettres Logo SPI 11.2016

Swiss National Bank : economic and monetary conditions update

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Interest on sight deposits at the Swiss National Bank remains at 0.75% below zero, policymakers said on Thursday. They also decided to leave the target range for the three-month Libor (London Interbank Offered Rate) unchanged at between 1.25% and 0.25% under the neutral level. The central bank reiterated it will "remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary," willing to intervene to ease upward pressure on the franc.

The inflation outlook was slightly dampened. After 0.3% this year, the main gauge is expected in 2018 at 0.3% or 0.1 percentage points less than what was estimated in March. The rate-setters took the forecasted rate also 0.1 points lower for the year after that, to 1%. Growth in 2017 is still expected to reach 1.5%.

"In the first quarter, growth in mortgage lending remained constant at a relatively low level, and momentum in residential real estate prices continued at a measured pace. At the same time, owing to developments in fundamentals and the generally subdued activity on the mortgage and residential real estate markets, imbalances have fallen slightly in recent quarters. Nevertheless, they are still just as pronounced as they were in 2014, when the sectoral countercyclical capital buffer was set at 2%," the statement said.

SOTHEBY'S SALES vs S&P 500 : a good indicator ?

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BID vs SPX

Above you will find the graph of Sotheby's shares compared to the S&P 500 indice. 

What do you see?

1. Sotheby's share price makes long-term cycles. These cycles depends on auctions sales and profits reflecting the most wealthy clients' will to save a part of their fortune through the purchase of art works.

2. The overextension of Sotheby's share price compared to the S&P 500 indice tends to validate an end-of-cycle or a correction in stock markets (1999 and then 2007, 2011, and 2013).

3. During the last move from 2016 to 2017, Sotheby's share price has risen strongly but has not shown a speculative extension of its rise versus its indice yet. Then, it seems that the upside phase might continue a couple of months, though it might become more speculative. And we cannot exclude a short-term correction.

You wish to post comments or get more information regarding our services, click on : This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. 

 

Written by Jean-Pierre Riepe on July 27th, 2017 

 

Would you invest in a US biotechnology company... ?

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biotechnology1

 

Would you invest in a US biotech company... ?

- with a 2017E P/E of 6.4x and a debt/equity ratio of 1,29

- paying a dividend yield of nearly 2.8 %

- its current book-value is estimated at 4.6x

- its EBIT margin at 58 % and net margin at 44 %

- its cash-flow and its free cash-flow are largely positive

                                                                              

Please meet one of our Partners to be informed of the latest investment opportunities. 

During a meeting, we will define your investment and your risk profile as to suggest the best solution according to your affinities and needs.

For contact : This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. 

 

Rebalance between equities and commodities ?

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Stocks to Commodities Ratio

Sometimes a picture shows much more than 1000 words.

What can we conclude ?

  • either commodities are undervalued
  • either shares are overpriced
  • or both have reached extremes and should reduce the gap  to reach the median line.

Please feel free to send a message to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. if you need more information or wish to know which commodity is the favorite one.

US Prime Working-Age Population near 2007 Peak

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Two articles about demography.

The prime working age population peaked in 2007, and bottomed at the end of 2012. As of May 2017, there were still fewer people in the 25 to 54 age group than in 2007.

At the beginning of this year - based on demographics - it looked like the prime working age (25 to 54) would probably hit a new peak in 2017.  

However, since the beginning of the year, the prime working age population has declined slightly.

Changes in demographics are an important determinant of economic growth, and although most people focus on the aging of the "baby boomer" generation, the movement of younger cohorts into the prime working age is another key story. Here is a graph of the prime working age population (25 to 54 years old) from 1948 through May 2017.

Note: This is population, not work force.

Prime Working Age Populaton

There was a huge surge in the prime working age population in the '70s, '80s and '90s.

The prime working age labor force grew even quicker than the population in the '70s and '80s due to the increase in participation of women. In fact, the prime working age labor force was increasing 3%+ per year in the '80s!

So when we compare economic growth to the '70s, '80, or 90's we have to remember this difference in demographics (the '60s saw solid economic growth as near-prime age groups increased sharply).

The good news is the prime working age group should start growing at 0.5% per year - and this should boost economic activity.  

 

By: Calculated Risk | Wednesday, June 7, 2017 at 03:59 pm EST

 

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